NHRP / Hazard themes / Geological Hazards / Volcano / Volcanic Risk: From Hazards to Impact

NHRP Partner-Led Research

Quantifying Exposure to Specific and Multiple Volcanic Hazards

Project leader - Jonathan Procter (Massey University), in collaboration with University of Auckland, University of Canterbury, Victoria University of Wellington and GNS Science

This research includes three key components:

(i) From eruption hazard dynamics to hazard probability. This will yield a new paradigm in probabilistic forecasts of evolving hazard sequences: identifying fundamental recurrence, progression and cascading patterns in hazards, their likelihoods and uncertainties for each volcano.

(ii) From hazard probability to hazard intensity. This source model will serve as a novel quantitative decision-support tool in short-term hazard forecasting during volcanic crises in NZ and set a new global standard in volcanic hazard management. This approach will provide solutions to several problems, including the conditions under which hazard intensities cumulate or cascade locally; and how to quantify the scale-dependence of MSMH hazards and the escalation from regional to national and global scale.

(iii) From hazard intensities to estimates and communication of impact probability. This component will initially use benchmarked, numerical simulations and existing field data to develop a complete set of advanced fragility functions covering all major volcanic hazard processes. They will be applied to critical (horizontal) infrastructure, primary industries and cultural assets in NZ to benchmark the results of the new probabilistic impact-damage model. New stakeholder-driven methods/tools will also be developed to present and communicate the multidimensional hazard scenarios and impacts with their associated uncertainties, for effective use in long-term forecasts and planning.

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Last updated 12 Jan 2018